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by Jadagul
24 Nov 2020, 15:30
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Whither the Democratic Party?
Replies: 139
Views: 2278

Re: Whither the Democratic Party?

It doesn't matter what the leftmost 5% believes. Or what the rightmost 5% believes, or the libertarianmost 5%. It matters when the broad middle gets swung toward them. And the broad middle got swung toward then, during the BLM protests, because of Trumpian incompetence and authoritarianism. Quibble...
by Jadagul
24 Nov 2020, 14:36
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Whither the Democratic Party?
Replies: 139
Views: 2278

Re: Whither the Democratic Party?

Jason, in general I feel like you're making the same mistake I critiqued Aresen for making earlier in the thread. There are people on the left who are every bit as crazy as you fear. You can definitely find quotes from them. And they seem to believe that they represent the entire left. But they are ...
by Jadagul
23 Nov 2020, 20:44
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Whither the Democratic Party?
Replies: 139
Views: 2278

Re: Whither the Democratic Party?

I don't think that's either a fair or a productive way to engage with this. The people you're describing definitely exist. They're really far from everyone who voted for Trump. Most people _don't follow politics_. Every single person here is in the top, like, five percent of caring about politics. P...
by Jadagul
23 Nov 2020, 17:56
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Whither the Democratic Party?
Replies: 139
Views: 2278

Re: Whither the Democratic Party?

The general public perception is that Trump did a really good job with the economy but was personally a fuckup. Most people are financially better off than they were four years ago. That was true before covid hit, they don't blame him for the covid-related economic slowdown, and many people are in f...
by Jadagul
23 Nov 2020, 17:25
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Whither the Democratic Party?
Replies: 139
Views: 2278

Re: Whither the Democratic Party?

Were willing to give him a pass isn't the same as unperturbed.

Fundamentals model plausibly has Trump at like +4 or +5? At least at even. And he actually got like -4.
by Jadagul
23 Nov 2020, 16:40
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Calling 2020 for Entropy
Replies: 1639
Views: 142763

Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

OK. That's the piece I was missing. I assumed there had to be some outside determination that was provided. TBS, I'm not particularly fond of such power being delegated to a bureaucrat. What happens in 2024 if Pence and Harris are tied at 270? Or if the GOP denies Trump the nomination in 2024, but ...
by Jadagul
23 Nov 2020, 15:51
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Calling 2020 for Entropy
Replies: 1639
Views: 142763

Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Perhaps there is some aspect of US election law that I don't get, but I think the Team Blue fury at Emily Murphy is misplaced. Yes, Ms. Murphy is supposed to sign the letter authorizing release of the transition funds to the Biden team once he has been declared the President-Elect. However, AFAICT,...
by Jadagul
19 Nov 2020, 23:37
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Calling 2020 for Entropy
Replies: 1639
Views: 142763

Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

and it's failing, Is it though? 52% of Republicans think Biden is stealing the election through widespread voter fraud. Not a huge number of actual people, but not insignificant either IMO. He might not succeed in continuing to be president, but he's doing a fantastic job of plastering the country ...
by Jadagul
19 Nov 2020, 20:54
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Calling 2020 for Entropy
Replies: 1639
Views: 142763

Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Am I allowed to freak out yet? If not, why not? No. Because nothing has actually happened, and all the people who actually control what happens are still following the law. If a state elections board goes rogue, we have a problem, but for right now, freaking out just gives him more respect than his...
by Jadagul
17 Nov 2020, 21:05
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Calling 2020 for Entropy
Replies: 1639
Views: 142763

Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Yeah, there's kind of a big difference between "a priority of my administration is putting the last administration in jail" and "as President, I don't plan to direct the DOJ to make specific politically-motivated investigations".
by Jadagul
17 Nov 2020, 17:06
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Constitutional amendments
Replies: 4
Views: 379

Re: Constitutional amendments

I've been watching the obstructionism around the transition for a few days now. The one thing that bothers me about the Biden side is that Biden is not technically the President-Elect until January 6th. De facto , he is, but not in law. It seems there is no way around Trump's behavior without a con...
by Jadagul
13 Nov 2020, 13:17
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!
Replies: 1517
Views: 117187

Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Ordinary people and business owners will eat the cost by paying the taxes that are being "given" back to them, either by way of lack of services in the future, higher taxes, or money printer go brrrrr. In a sense yes but in another sense way less so than usual right now. If we like pierce the veil ...
by Jadagul
11 Nov 2020, 14:36
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Speaking in tongues (the "learning languages" thread)
Replies: 308
Views: 57617

Re: Speaking in tongues (the "learning languages" thread)

You can also look at the way internet-speak has grown on the internet and then infiltrated spoken language; things like "tbh" and "because 2020" have become standard spoken phrases. (The way we use the word "Because" has changed a lot! We couldn't say "because noun" fifty years ago.) I don't think ...
by Jadagul
10 Nov 2020, 17:38
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Calling 2020 for Entropy
Replies: 1639
Views: 142763

Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Benford's law mostly holds when you have numbers that range over several orders of magnitude. The basic idea is, if you have a number that's 500 +/- 20%, you might get first digits of 4 or 5. If you have a number that's 800 +/- 20%, you'll probably get a first digit of 7 or 8, and might get 6 or 9. ...
by Jadagul
09 Nov 2020, 17:53
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Predictions for 2030
Replies: 130
Views: 5474

Re: Predictions for 2030

Isn't the obvious answer to the benefit of a self-driving taxi that I don't have to interact with the driver? It's the same reason ordering by kiosk at McDonald's is much nicer than ordering at the counter.
by Jadagul
08 Nov 2020, 22:10
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Calling 2020 for Entropy
Replies: 1639
Views: 142763

Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Jeebus, nothing can come easy this year can it? I know some of the drama had more to do with the way the vote count happened but the polls were still way off. I'm curious if the polling industry can figure out what the deal was. This was worse than in 2016, and IIRC that was at least in the margin ...
by Jadagul
08 Nov 2020, 19:46
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Calling 2020 for Entropy
Replies: 1639
Views: 142763

Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

One thing I wonder about is the exit polling showing that Trump did better with Black and Hispanic voters this time. My first thought was that people who voted in person this year wouldn't be representative, but some claim that the studies also talked to people who voted early or by mail. But eithe...
by Jadagul
08 Nov 2020, 13:47
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Calling 2020 for Entropy
Replies: 1639
Views: 142763

Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

https://twitter.com/annakhachiyan/status/1325115596007206913?s=21 https://twitter.com/annakhachiyan/status/1325121211563536386?s=21 tfw when you're too cool to clearly articulate what you're talking about because it would reveal that you don't actually know. TFW you think a flattened, open-plan glo...
by Jadagul
07 Nov 2020, 18:21
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: It’s time to make your call
Replies: 103
Views: 3270

Re: It’s time to make your call

I think it's wise not to form any actual opinions about the details of the result for a couple weeks, when we'll know the details of the result.
by Jadagul
07 Nov 2020, 17:18
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Voting methodologies
Replies: 195
Views: 18239

Re: Voting methodologies

Not sure that's _that_ different from the current process getting us Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Jon Tester, and Joe Manchin.
by Jadagul
07 Nov 2020, 13:38
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Calling 2020 for Entropy
Replies: 1639
Views: 142763

Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

I am trying to figure out why the media haven't called Alaska yet. Yes, it's only 56% of the vote, but Trump is ahead 2:1. Mail ballots are systematically different from in-person ballots. In Alaska we have all the in-person ballots but none of the mail ballots. The smart money is very definitely o...
by Jadagul
07 Nov 2020, 13:37
Forum: The Joys of Life
Topic: Video Games!
Replies: 2839
Views: 261623

Re: Video Games!

You can leave me off the thread, btw, especially if namespace is an issue; I'm very _familiar_ with Among Us but it stresses me the fuck out and I wouldn't enjoy playing it.
by Jadagul
06 Nov 2020, 15:14
Forum: The Joys of Life
Topic: Video Games!
Replies: 2839
Views: 261623

Re: Video Games!

Discord is the thing we use to hold office hours and answer calculus questions, right?
by Jadagul
06 Nov 2020, 12:50
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Calling 2020 for Entropy
Replies: 1639
Views: 142763

Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

They are probably correct though. But I also think it’s correct that the big news orgs are *not* calling the race yet. Why? It's really hard to envision a path at this point where Trump wins. Now, this time _yesterday_, it was reasonably clear that Biden would win but not clear enough to call. (On ...
by Jadagul
05 Nov 2020, 16:04
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Calling 2020 for Entropy
Replies: 1639
Views: 142763

Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

People really like to oversimplify and aggregate. I make the same comment periodically about, like, why is Trump making pitches to Black voters, he's not going to win Black voters. And no, he's not, but moving Black voters from 5% Republican to 10% Republican matters! But people like to essentialize...