msinaisuhtlaM

User avatar
Hugh Akston
Posts: 19530
Joined: 05 May 2010, 15:51
Location: El Pueblo de Nuestra Señora Reina de los Angeles

Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by Hugh Akston »

Chinese birth rates are at their lowest since the revolution
The National Bureau of Statistics of China released the new data on Friday, the same day it announced that the country's GDP growth has fallen to its lowest level in nearly 30 years.

Last year, there were 10.48 births per 1,000 people, the lowest birth rate since 1949, the year the People's Republic of China was founded. The number was down from 10.94 the year before.

The one-child policy was put in place in 1979 by Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, who feared that the country's exploding population would hold back economic development.

However, by 2016, China's leadership came to realize that the policy had been too successful and officially relaxed it.

Experts say that improved education and higher incomes in China have led to delayed marriage and childbirth, and that once-strict government restrictions on births have made one-child households the norm.
"Is a Lulztopia the best we can hope for?!?" ~Taktix®
"Somali pirates are beholden to their hostages in a way that the USG is not." ~Dangerman

User avatar
Hugh Akston
Posts: 19530
Joined: 05 May 2010, 15:51
Location: El Pueblo de Nuestra Señora Reina de los Angeles

Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by Hugh Akston »

Douthat on Chinese fertility

First, China will have to pay for the care of a vast elderly population without the resources available to richer societies facing the same challenge. Second, China’s future growth prospects will dim with every year of below-replacement birthrates because low fertility creates a self-reinforcing cycle in which a less youthful society loses dynamism and growth, which reduces economic support for would-be parents, which reduces birthrates, which reduces growth …

The Times’ report on China’s birthrates also reminds us that this trap is cultural, quoting a young Chinese woman who remarks of her one-child-policy-shaped generation, “We are all only children, and to be honest, a little selfish … How can I raise a child when I’m still a child myself?” This is the glib explication of a real problem: Having kids, inevitably one of the harder things that humans do, feels harder still in a society where children are invisible, siblings absent, and large families rare; where there aren’t ready exemplars or forms of solidarity for people contemplating parenthood.
In all this, what China is experiencing is part of the common demographic decadence of the developed world, which is enveloping developing countries too. As Lyman Stone writes in the latest National Review, the human race is increasingly facing a “global fertility crisis,” not just a European or American or Japanese baby bust. It’s a crisis that threatens ever-slower growth in the best case; in the worst case, to cite a recent paper by Stanford economist Charles Jones, it risks “an Empty Planet result: knowledge and living standards stagnate for a population that gradually vanishes.”
"Is a Lulztopia the best we can hope for?!?" ~Taktix®
"Somali pirates are beholden to their hostages in a way that the USG is not." ~Dangerman

User avatar
Hugh Akston
Posts: 19530
Joined: 05 May 2010, 15:51
Location: El Pueblo de Nuestra Señora Reina de los Angeles

Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by Hugh Akston »

Between low birth rates, low immigration, and a coronavirus death surge, the US is flirting with its first ever negative population growth
A sharp and steady decline in the birthrate since the Great Recession means births are no longer such a powerful driver of growth. Immigration, which would typically pick up the slack, is down sharply too. And deaths are rising as baby boomers age and drug overdoses surge. Now there is the added threat of the coronavirus, which is particularly lethal for older people.

Births fell to 3.79 million in the year ending in July 2019, while deaths jumped to 2.83 million. That difference — the natural growth of the population — is now less than 1 million for the first time in decades. When combined with immigration, which fell to a net gain of 595,348 people — down by nearly half since 2016 — the United States had a population increase of just 0.48 percent.
The new census data offers details about the populations of counties and metropolitan areas. Dr. Johnson calculated that deaths now exceed births in about 46 percent of counties in the country, far more than at the start of the decade, when the pattern held in just 29 percent of counties. Now large swaths of New England, Western Pennsylvania, Central Florida and much of Appalachia glow red on his map of counties that exhibit the pattern.
All of this has had a dramatic effect on the populations in cities and towns. Large metro areas had the steepest decline over the course of the decade, Mr. Frey found in an analysis, with the growth rate down by nearly half. Rural areas, in contrast, grew slightly by the end of the decade, though that followed several years of declines.

Places that had once been popular destinations for young people — New York, Los Angeles and Chicago — ended the decade with some of the biggest declines. New York began losing population in 2017, and last year it registered a loss of more than 60,000 people, the biggest population decline of any American city, Mr. Frey found.
"Is a Lulztopia the best we can hope for?!?" ~Taktix®
"Somali pirates are beholden to their hostages in a way that the USG is not." ~Dangerman

User avatar
Warren
Posts: 29876
Joined: 26 Apr 2010, 17:03
Location: Goat Rope MO
Contact:

Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by Warren »

Right as the Boomers are hitting SS and Medicare age
THIS SPACE FOR RENT

User avatar
nicole
Posts: 10762
Joined: 12 Jan 2013, 16:28

Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by nicole »

Don't get my hopes up, Hugh.
"Fucking qualia." -Hugh Akston

"Sliced bagels aren't why trump won; it's why it doesn't matter who wins." -dhex

User avatar
Hugh Akston
Posts: 19530
Joined: 05 May 2010, 15:51
Location: El Pueblo de Nuestra Señora Reina de los Angeles

Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by Hugh Akston »

Americans Aren’t Making Babies, and That’s Bad for the Economy
In June the Brookings Institution released a study predicting the U.S. is headed for “a large, lasting baby bust.” Its researchers forecast there will be 300,000 to 500,000 fewer children born in the U.S. in 2021 than there would have been absent the crisis, which amounts to a decrease of roughly 10% from 2019. That means the number of babies never born is likely to greatly exceed the number of Americans who’ve died from coronavirus, which is now about 150,000. The effect on population will be longer-lasting as well: Many of the babies who aren’t being born would have lived into the 22nd century.
Also, when the pandemic broke out, birth control providers reported an increase in sales from people stocking up in case of shortages. Some sources have also seen a bump in demand for long-lasting forms of birth control. The Pill Club Holdings Inc. logged a 65% increase in June in new patient requests for Annovera, a vaginal ring that prevents pregnancy for up to a year. In the U.S., contraception has generally been available to those who need it, in contrast to the situation in poor and middle-income countries where disruptions in access to birth control may result in as many as 7 million unintended pregnancies in just half a year, according to an April estimate by the United Nations Population Fund.
For the economy, fewer future workers will entail a bigger burden on each one to support future retirees. Every two-tenths decline in the total fertility rate (that is, two fewer children per 10 women) necessitates an increase in the Social Security payroll tax of about 0.4 percentage point, according to a table in the 2020 annual report of the trustees of the Social Security trust funds.
"Is a Lulztopia the best we can hope for?!?" ~Taktix®
"Somali pirates are beholden to their hostages in a way that the USG is not." ~Dangerman

User avatar
Ellie
Posts: 13297
Joined: 21 Apr 2010, 18:34

Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by Ellie »

I obviously respect to the utmost any individual's decision not to bear children. But in the aggregate? I WANT TO SEE MORE BABIES. MAKE BABIES, DAMMIT
"Yours is the much better comeback." -JD

Post Reply