Putin on the Writs

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by JasonL » 17 Oct 2019, 17:14

And to be clear this is not a dig at five thirty eight. I think they do good work. I just think they sometimes in retroactive analysis make too much out of events that could be high variability wash because they think they see something in their model.

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by thoreau » 17 Oct 2019, 17:17

One reason the Comey letter gets so much attention is that it violated DOJ guidelines. There's a memo issued every election year saying that they shouldn't do what he did, and then he did it anyway. It's an event that really should not have happened, and then when he got fired it wasn't even because of that.

(Yeah, yeah, the Rosenstein memo said it was for that, but he didn't get fired until he refused to leave Flynn alone. If he was going to be fired for the email situation he could have been fired months earlier.)
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 17 Oct 2019, 17:29

Mo wrote:
17 Oct 2019, 17:05
If a team loses a game 28-24 you can say that there’s a lot of reasons why they lost, but you can also say the pick 6 with 5 minutes to go cost them the game.
Or you could say that holding call or pass interference call they got against them or didn't get in their favor in the first quarter cost them the game.

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by JasonL » 17 Oct 2019, 17:35

Which story you prefer is extremely sensitive to which laundry you prefer and not just this unsophisticated fans. You don’t have that argument in two score games very much, or if you do it’s the real diehards or all saints fans who say their team never really lost a game but for the close calls.

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Jadagul » 17 Oct 2019, 18:23

Hugh Akston wrote:
17 Oct 2019, 12:01
thoreau wrote:
17 Oct 2019, 11:53
Hugh Akston wrote:
17 Oct 2019, 11:45
Mo wrote:
17 Oct 2019, 10:41
Nate Silver pegged the decline due to the Comey letter as about 3% minimum, which would have given her a 5% popular vote win.
So Nate Silver doesn't understand how presidential elections work any better than the Democrats do?
If Clinton had gotten a 5% popular vote margin it's all but a given that she would have won. Yes, yes, in principle one could lose the electoral college while getting a hyuge popular vote margin, but in practice that just never happens.
You'll have to pardon me for not taking your word for it. Even if I weren't extremely skeptical of counterfactuals, I would want to see some data indicating that the votes would shift at the swing state level to move the EC the other way.

And even if all that were true, the fact that Hillary was running such thin margins against as vile a creature as Donald Trump doesn't say great things about her strength as a candidate.
I don't think this is a terribly good argument. Once Trump had the Republican nomination, it was basically given he was going to get over 40% of the vote; that's how two-party elections work. He got 46% of the vote; without the timing on the Comey letter he probably got 43% of the vote, which is not that far from 40%.

Now it's true that Clinton was also not performing great. I don't think she was a great candidate. But she even the best candidate would have struggled to get more than a ten-point margin or so.
thoreau wrote:
17 Oct 2019, 16:49
OK, so assigning significant weight to the Comey letter is out. What about assigning weight to the failure to campaign heavily enough in key states? Is that also model torture?
This is probably just wrong. She didn't campaign enough in two of the states (I think it was Michigan and Wisconsin?) but she had an active aggressive presence in the third (Pennsylvania?) and that alone was enough to lose her the election. The tactics were probably suboptimal but it's hard to actually put the blame for her loss on those because in the counterfactual she still loses the election.

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 17 Oct 2019, 18:36

I think Jadagul's points make more sense if you assume from jump street that Clinton v Trump was going to be a typical election year. Even with increasingly polarized states, though, I think most people assumed it was going to look more like Johnson v Goldwater, Nixon v McGovern or Reagan v Mondale; that is, ignoring the actual polling data for better or worse, most people thought Clinton would win in a popular vote landslide, never mind the Electoral College. That's what Clinton expected and it's probably what Trump expected.

Clinton in particular and Democrats in general overwhelmingly ignored how deep and widespread dislike of her as a candidate was, especially once Trump was the Republican candidate. And she took the black vote for granted and spent way too much time and effort in states where she was going to win, anyway, because she frankly expected a coronation. In fact, I'm not sure even Sanders could have lost against Trump, in no small part because his support taps into the same emotive nativism and populism that threw the race to Trump.

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Eric the .5b » 17 Oct 2019, 18:41

thoreau wrote:
17 Oct 2019, 16:49
OK, so assigning significant weight to the Comey letter is out.
Eh, I gave my good-faith input. Do WTF you want and say I'm destroying all meaning.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Aresen » 17 Oct 2019, 18:44

D.A. Ridgely wrote:
17 Oct 2019, 18:36
I think Jadagul's points make more sense if you assume from jump street that Clinton v Trump was going to be a typical election year. Even with increasingly polarized states, though, I think most people assumed it was going to look more like Johnson v Goldwater, Nixon v McGovern or Reagan v Mondale; that is, ignoring the actual polling data for better or worse, most people thought Clinton would win in a popular vote landslide, never mind the Electoral College. That's what Clinton expected and it's probably what Trump expected.

Clinton in particular and Democrats in general overwhelmingly ignored how deep and widespread dislike of her as a candidate was, especially once Trump was the Republican candidate. And she took the black vote for granted and spent way too much time and effort in states where she was going to win, anyway, because she frankly expected a coronation. In fact, I'm not sure even Sanders could have lost against Trump, in no small part because his support taps into the same emotive nativism and populism that threw the race to Trump.
I'll go along with most of this except the part I've emphasized. If the past 3 years have taught me anything, it is just how delusional 45 is.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 17 Oct 2019, 18:59

Aresen wrote:
17 Oct 2019, 18:44
D.A. Ridgely wrote:
17 Oct 2019, 18:36
I think Jadagul's points make more sense if you assume from jump street that Clinton v Trump was going to be a typical election year. Even with increasingly polarized states, though, I think most people assumed it was going to look more like Johnson v Goldwater, Nixon v McGovern or Reagan v Mondale; that is, ignoring the actual polling data for better or worse, most people thought Clinton would win in a popular vote landslide, never mind the Electoral College. That's what Clinton expected and it's probably what Trump expected.

Clinton in particular and Democrats in general overwhelmingly ignored how deep and widespread dislike of her as a candidate was, especially once Trump was the Republican candidate. And she took the black vote for granted and spent way too much time and effort in states where she was going to win, anyway, because she frankly expected a coronation. In fact, I'm not sure even Sanders could have lost against Trump, in no small part because his support taps into the same emotive nativism and populism that threw the race to Trump.
I'll go along with most of this except the part I've emphasized. If the past 3 years have taught me anything, it is just how delusional 45 is.
I think Trump learned time and again that it's possible to fail upwards, that there was always some bank even sleazier or more delusional than he was and that, when all is said and done, what Trump owns and what he can rightfully claim as the key to what success he had prior to the election was his brand. I don't think he ever seriously wanted the job or thought he'd get it, let alone that he'd have to work once he got it. I think he wanted to burnish his brand as a former presidential candidate, spend the rest of his life blaming his loss on everyone but himself and cash in on the increased prestige and respectability that even being a losing candidate would have afforded him. That's not to say he didn't have fleeting fantasies of sitting in the Oval Office or that he was more than capable of doing the job, but it wasn't why he ran. If anything, the presidency has been a minor inconvenience in his brand marketing. Very minor, given his unwillingness to let anything as minor as the United States stand between him and a quick buck, but he's counting on making up for lost time whenever he does have to vacate the White House.

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by lunchstealer » 17 Oct 2019, 19:14

Aresen wrote:
17 Oct 2019, 18:44
D.A. Ridgely wrote:
17 Oct 2019, 18:36
I think Jadagul's points make more sense if you assume from jump street that Clinton v Trump was going to be a typical election year. Even with increasingly polarized states, though, I think most people assumed it was going to look more like Johnson v Goldwater, Nixon v McGovern or Reagan v Mondale; that is, ignoring the actual polling data for better or worse, most people thought Clinton would win in a popular vote landslide, never mind the Electoral College. That's what Clinton expected and it's probably what Trump expected.

Clinton in particular and Democrats in general overwhelmingly ignored how deep and widespread dislike of her as a candidate was, especially once Trump was the Republican candidate. And she took the black vote for granted and spent way too much time and effort in states where she was going to win, anyway, because she frankly expected a coronation. In fact, I'm not sure even Sanders could have lost against Trump, in no small part because his support taps into the same emotive nativism and populism that threw the race to Trump.
I'll go along with most of this except the part I've emphasized. If the past 3 years have taught me anything, it is just how delusional 45 is.
There are some indications though that he's also deeply insecure, and he may very well have believed that he was going to crater in the actual election. But for him it was the lulz of the rallies. He'll keep doing those when he's out of office, too, because he likes having the low-information voters chant bullshit at him.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by thoreau » 17 Oct 2019, 19:46

Eric the .5b wrote:
17 Oct 2019, 18:41
thoreau wrote:
17 Oct 2019, 16:49
OK, so assigning significant weight to the Comey letter is out.
Eh, I gave my good-faith input. Do WTF you want and say I'm destroying all meaning.
I don't think you're destroying all meaning.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Painboy » 17 Oct 2019, 23:34

As I see it, for the Email thing to swing the election one or more of these things had to happen.

1. A large number of people going to vote for Hillary decided to change their vote to Trump when the scandal was aired. I find that preposterous.

2. A large number of people going to vote hadn't decided between Hillary or Trump yet when the scandal was aired. Not as preposterous but close at that stage of the election.

3. A large number of Hillary voters were demoralized and didn't bother to go to the polls when the scandal was aired. This might be actually plausible but it's a weird thing for the email revelations be the straw that broke the camel's back. I don't think most people really even understood what the scandal was actually about.

My money is on their models just missed something and the email reveal happened to line up with it.

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Aresen » 18 Oct 2019, 00:27

Painboy wrote:
17 Oct 2019, 23:34
As I see it, for the Email thing to swing the election one or more of these things had to happen.

1. A large number of people going to vote for Hillary decided to change their vote to Trump when the scandal was aired. I find that preposterous.

2. A large number of people going to vote hadn't decided between Hillary or Trump yet when the scandal was aired. Not as preposterous but close at that stage of the election.

3. A large number of Hillary voters were demoralized and didn't bother to go to the polls when the scandal was aired. This might be actually plausible but it's a weird thing for the email revelations be the straw that broke the camel's back. I don't think most people really even understood what the scandal was actually about.

My money is on their models just missed something and the email reveal happened to line up with it.
Maybe. But the director of the FBI coming forward at that point to announce that Clinton was 'still under investigation' at that point certainly put the idea in many people's minds that Clinton really did have something to hide.

Also, the Team Blue reaction: "This is political sabotage!" was probably the wrong one. The best reaction would have been "Investigate away! We have nothing to hide!"
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Jadagul » 18 Oct 2019, 01:38

Painboy wrote:
17 Oct 2019, 23:34
As I see it, for the Email thing to swing the election one or more of these things had to happen.

1. A large number of people going to vote for Hillary decided to change their vote to Trump when the scandal was aired. I find that preposterous.

2. A large number of people going to vote hadn't decided between Hillary or Trump yet when the scandal was aired. Not as preposterous but close at that stage of the election.

3. A large number of Hillary voters were demoralized and didn't bother to go to the polls when the scandal was aired. This might be actually plausible but it's a weird thing for the email revelations be the straw that broke the camel's back. I don't think most people really even understood what the scandal was actually about.

My money is on their models just missed something and the email reveal happened to line up with it.
Voters who were undecided a week before the election broke like 4-1 for Trump.

And if you look at the polling over time, it varied between Clinton having like a 6 point lead to Clinton having like a 1 point lead. She had a 6 point lead coming out of the last debate, and it dropped to a 3 point lead going into the election, though it looked like it was rebounding at the last minute. The final count was Clinton +2, so the polling was pretty accurate, if not perfect.

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 18 Oct 2019, 10:14

Voters who said they were undecided a week before the election were almost certain a much higher number than voters who were actually uncertain. Outside partisan circles, including left leaning populists who wanted to vote for Sanders and right leaning populists who didn't mind acknowledging they were actually entertaining voting for Trump, I think many who did end up voting for him had already decided or close to decided but didn't want the flak acknowledging that decision would have caused for them.

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Aresen » 18 Oct 2019, 16:45

It appears that Trump was not the only unhinged major party candidate in 2016:

Hillary Clinton appears to suggest Russians are 'grooming' Tulsi Gabbard for third-party run
Former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton said Thursday the Russians are currently "grooming" a Democrat running in the presidential primary to run as a third-party candidate and champion their interests.

The comment appears to be directed at Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who has been accused of being cozy with Russia in the past.

"I'm not making any predictions, but I think they've got their eye on somebody who is currently in the Democratic primary and are grooming her to be the third-party candidate," Clinton said, speaking on a podcast with former Obama adviser David Plouffe. "She's the favorite of the Russians."

Clinton never names Gabbard, but there are only five women running for President -- Gabbard, California Sen. Kamala Harris, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and author Marianne Williamson -- and none of the other woman have been accused of being boosted by Russia.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 18 Oct 2019, 17:37

Hillary will never rest until she gets those damned ruby slippers or someone pours a bucket of water over her head.

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Taktix® » 18 Oct 2019, 23:41

Aresen wrote:
18 Oct 2019, 16:45
It appears that Trump was not the only unhinged major party candidate in 2016:

Hillary Clinton appears to suggest Russians are 'grooming' Tulsi Gabbard for third-party run
Former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton said Thursday the Russians are currently "grooming" a Democrat running in the presidential primary to run as a third-party candidate and champion their interests.

The comment appears to be directed at Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who has been accused of being cozy with Russia in the past.

"I'm not making any predictions, but I think they've got their eye on somebody who is currently in the Democratic primary and are grooming her to be the third-party candidate," Clinton said, speaking on a podcast with former Obama adviser David Plouffe. "She's the favorite of the Russians."

Clinton never names Gabbard, but there are only five women running for President -- Gabbard, California Sen. Kamala Harris, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and author Marianne Williamson -- and none of the other woman have been accused of being boosted by Russia.
I mean, it worked the first time around:

Image

JIll Stein got:

48,912 votes in PA (Trump won by 68,236)
30,980 votes in WI (Trump won by 27,257)
50,700 votes in MI (Trump won by 11,612)
44,310 votes in OH (Trump won by half a million)
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Hugh Akston » 19 Oct 2019, 13:03

So did Putin have dinner with 175k people in four states individually so he could use his hypno-eyez on them, or did he send out his army of Putin-bots to do it? Maybe it was his orbital brain control laser.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by thoreau » 19 Oct 2019, 13:07

Putin single-handedly got k-12 teachers across the US to make sure grylliaders would never learn to read.

The claim is that Jill Stein produced a spoiler effect, and that Russians cultivated relationships with her while she was doing that. We can debate the significance of either Stein's work or the Russians' ties with her, but nobody said that Putin individually manipulated 175k people.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by thoreau » 19 Oct 2019, 13:08

As to Gabbard, I doubt that she has any direct relationship with the Russians, or any desire to have such a relationship. But if she decides to go third party, I don't doubt for one second that the Russians will try to help her.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Taktix® » 19 Oct 2019, 14:48

Hugh Akston wrote:
19 Oct 2019, 13:03
So did Putin have dinner with 175k people in four states individually so he could use his hypno-eyez on them, or did he send out his army of Putin-bots to do it? Maybe it was his orbital brain control laser.
What it must be like to live in a world where money and connections and various other forms of campaign assistance (sometimes arranged over dinner meetings) have no effect whatsoever on people and every good citizen takes the time to sit down and responsibly weigh all the available candidates before making the reasoned decision for whom to vote.

A land where the massive industries of campaign management and public relations and influence peddling and lobbying and branding and data gathering and analysis are really all just a bunch of dousing rod jockeys! Stump speeches from actual stumps! Oh, look at the pretty balloons!!!
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Warren » 19 Oct 2019, 14:49

D.A. Ridgely wrote:
18 Oct 2019, 17:37
Hillary will never rest until she gets those damned ruby slippers or someone pours a bucket of water over her head.
this gave me glee
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Warren » 19 Oct 2019, 14:52

Taktix® wrote:
19 Oct 2019, 14:48
Hugh Akston wrote:
19 Oct 2019, 13:03
So did Putin have dinner with 175k people in four states individually so he could use his hypno-eyez on them, or did he send out his army of Putin-bots to do it? Maybe it was his orbital brain control laser.
What it must be like to live in a world where money and connections and various other forms of campaign assistance (sometimes arranged over dinner meetings) have no effect whatsoever on people and every good citizen takes the time to sit down and responsibly weigh all the available candidates before making the reasoned decision for whom to vote.

A land where the massive industries of campaign management and public relations and influence peddling and lobbying and branding and data gathering and analysis are really all just a bunch of dousing rod jockeys! Stump speeches from actual stumps! Oh, look at the pretty balloons!!!
Pretty much everything I've read suggest money and connections can get you nominated, but don't have much effect in getting votes.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Taktix® » 19 Oct 2019, 14:53

Warren wrote:
19 Oct 2019, 14:52
Taktix® wrote:
19 Oct 2019, 14:48
Hugh Akston wrote:
19 Oct 2019, 13:03
So did Putin have dinner with 175k people in four states individually so he could use his hypno-eyez on them, or did he send out his army of Putin-bots to do it? Maybe it was his orbital brain control laser.
What it must be like to live in a world where money and connections and various other forms of campaign assistance (sometimes arranged over dinner meetings) have no effect whatsoever on people and every good citizen takes the time to sit down and responsibly weigh all the available candidates before making the reasoned decision for whom to vote.

A land where the massive industries of campaign management and public relations and influence peddling and lobbying and branding and data gathering and analysis are really all just a bunch of dousing rod jockeys! Stump speeches from actual stumps! Oh, look at the pretty balloons!!!
Pretty much everything I've read suggest money and connections can get you nominated, but don't have much effect in getting votes.
The balloons! So pretty!
"Guilty as charged. Go ahead and ban me from the mall." - Ellie

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