Calling 2020 for Entropy

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Number 6
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Number 6 »

thoreau wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 16:37 The question is whether those hee-haws have always been there at similar prevalence for several election cycles, and so their effects are already captured in changing poll numbers.
Honestly, I think they've been growing in numbers, boldness, and stickiness. I also think social media has a part to play here.
ETA: The success of the southern strategy suggests that the Trumpian types have always been around. Perhaps it just takes the right demagog to show up.
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thoreau
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by thoreau »

Growing in boldness can mean that their numbers aren't actually growing, you're just noticing them more.
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Number 6
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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thoreau wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 16:47 Growing in boldness can mean that their numbers aren't actually growing, you're just noticing them more.
That could be. But prior to Trump, I find it hard to imagine the numbers of people now flat out denying that Covid is a real threat, or that masks work. And I certainly can't imagine that a plurality of Republicans would believe that Clinton is part of a world wide child sex ring, and that Trump is secretly working to destroy them.
I admit that I don't have numbers to back this, and that my living in a red hell skews my vision. But it feels very, very different these days.
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thoreau
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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I think that anyone who pays even a bit of attention to politics these days feels more and more compelled to display loyalty. It's worse on the right, for sure, because their guy is in charge and he's crazy as all hell and thin-skinned to boot. So showing loyalty to him really, really, REALLY proves something.

But there are plenty of people out there engaging in lefty loyalty displays as well. Some of them are arguably just signs of decency (e.g. some inclusive language and pronoun stuff) but if it weren't tied up in culture wars I doubt they'd feel the urgency to display it. And maybe that part is rational, but somewhat less rational is how many of us have to now pretend to not remember that Biden was about as lawn order as a Blue Senator can be. I've had liberal friends get pissed if I criticized violent protests, or said that Antifa is bad for the cause of police reform. (At which point they'd tell me that Antifa is a bunch of cops and patsies and I'd say "Yep, that's why they're bad for the cause" and my friends wouldn't get what I'm saying.)

We're in a tribal time, made worse by the fact that we're all scared of disease and contemplating mortality, and both of these factors drive our tribal impulses. A whole lot of people need to be Bluer Than Blue or Redder Than Red right now.
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Eric the .5b
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Eric the .5b »

As far as I can tell, "lefty loyalty displays" right now are people bitching about the prospect of voting for Biden because Bernie's chance was somehow "stolen" by most Democrats not wanting him.
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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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I suspect the very prospect of the buffoonish Trump on the campaign trail was so facially absurd that many people who voted for him wouldn't admit to doing so until after he won, but I've noticed no reticence on the part of Trump supporters to proclaim their continuing support this time around, so I doubt there are many 'hidden' Trump voters this time.

People lie to pollsters. Pollsters know this. We know this. Are the models better this time around? I don't know. But Trump's overall support (as, for example, shown to be consistently around 42% on 538) doesn't necessarily translate to votes. Likely voters are a subset of eligible voters and, as such, favor Trump, but the question is whether they suffice to take enough swing states for him to win. If he loses Florida, unlikely but still possible, he loses. If he loses Texas, also unlikely but not per se absurd, he loses. And a goodly number of those 42% diehard Trump supporters or whatever percentage of them are likely voters are in decidedly Blue states.

Here's an NPR article on how and where the two campaigns are focusing time and money. For now. I don't think we see much movement until the debates. Then who knows?
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Shem
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Shem »

Number 6 wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 16:52 But prior to Trump, I find it hard to imagine the numbers of people now flat out denying that Covid is a real threat, or that masks work.
Even that's an artifact of social media, though. Something like 70% of the population views Covid as a serious threat when polled. That's a very good number. Only 75% are against cutting Social Security, for example, which politically is a giant no-brainer.

Ultimately, it's not the bubbas or the vegan femino-syndicalists in the cities that decide elections. It's people in the suburbs who try very hard to only think about politics in the month or so before the election. And those people are sick of being forced to follow the news to stay up on what the moron has done this time. This will be a repeat of 2018.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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Number 6 wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 16:36
Shem wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 15:00 Are you sure living in a deep red state isn't skewing your thinking?
No, I'm not sure of that at all. But I do know that about 40% of my countrymen are perfectly fine with Trump's grotesqueries. I also know that the EC skews things towards the more bubbarific states.
Your point about the prevalence of the redneck element is a fair one, but I also think it's easy to underestimate how prevalent that sort of thinking is. While it's fair to note that I work in a field that attracts red-state types, I can say that the Trumpian worldview is almost universal among them. I hope that you're right about how many hee-haws are out there, but I'm afraid you're not.
The results in 2016 showed how many there are, I'm just not at all certain that he's putting more chess pieces on the board, and I think Biden has a few more than Hillary did. Biden is an uninspiring candidate, but he's not polarizing like Hillary. Nobody has a bad impression of him that wasn't hard core team red or hard core anticentrist. There's no ZOMG BIDEN IS TEH EVILS or even BIDEN IS SKETCHY/SHIFTY among normies the way there frankly is about Hillary. Meanwhile, the Lincoln Project isn't a thing because Republican Elites are out of touch. It's a thing because Trump is SO FUCKING BAD wrt centrist-GOP values that they're in open revolt and there are straight up unequivocal endorsements of Biden from GOP mid-wigs including speaking at the DNC convention. The closest to that that I remember in 2016 was Bill Fucking Weld of all people. Trump only has the bubba reactionary vote and the TEAM RED UBER ALLES (even if Trump insulted my wife and accused my dad of killing Kennedy) vote. Good governance moderate GOP types are off the table in a way that they weren't four years ago when they could pretend that there'd be grownups in the room.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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Shem wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 17:22
Number 6 wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 16:52 But prior to Trump, I find it hard to imagine the numbers of people now flat out denying that Covid is a real threat, or that masks work.
Even that's an artifact of social media, though. Something like 70% of the population views Covid as a serious threat when polled. That's a very good number. Only 75% are against cutting Social Security, for example, which politically is a giant no-brainer.

Ultimately, it's not the bubbas or the vegan femino-syndicalists in the cities that decide elections. It's people in the suburbs who try very hard to only think about politics in the month or so before the election. And those people are sick of being forced to follow the news to stay up on what the moron has done this time. This will be a repeat of 2018.
And polling accuracy was better in 2018, and I can't imagine that trend changes for 2020.
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Ellie
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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lunchstealer wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 12:27
Number 6 wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 07:56
Shem wrote: 16 Sep 2020, 23:13
Number 6 wrote: 16 Sep 2020, 22:18 That’s honestly the one thing I don’t worry about with Trump, simply because I’m 100% certain he’s going to be re-elected, and by a sizable percentage of the EC.
Which states is he going to pick up he didn't get last time?
Oregon, Colorado, maybe Minnesota.
Minnesota is the only possibility, and then only because of too much BLM rioting.
Ewww, don't tell me that! I wanted to waste my vote on Jo Jorgenson, blissfully secure in the knowledge that Minnesota would go blue no matter what I did.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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I really, really hope you guys are right. But my gut says no.
I really, really hope that if Trump loses, he won't engage in fuckery to stay in office. My gut says he will.
I really, really want to believe that a plurality of my countrymen aren't slavering, Q-Anon believing, mask-shaming, sub-literate bigots. But my (admittedly redder than red state) experience says they are.
Not that I'm ready to give up. I'm just not sure what I can do, if anything. But if there's a way to help unseat this madman, then give me a position and show me where the ammunition is.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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lunchstealer wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 17:31 And polling accuracy was better in 2018, and I can't imagine that trend changes for 2020.
1) Nate Silver has repeatedly pointed out that the National Polling averages were very close to what the actual popular vote came out in 2016. The devil was in the smaller samples for individual states. Even at the state level, only Wisconsin was outside of the standard deviation for expected results. [I don't know stats well enough to say what percentage of samples would lie outside of the standard deviation, but my shoot-from-the-hip assumption is that 1 out of 50 being beyond the SD is quite probable.]

2) We'll know by the time the official results are posted if the polling accuracy is better (assuming the shenanigans we all know are coming don't skew it.)
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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Aresen wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 17:43
lunchstealer wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 17:31 And polling accuracy was better in 2018, and I can't imagine that trend changes for 2020.
1) Nate Silver has repeatedly pointed out that the National Polling averages were very close to what the actual popular vote came out in 2016. The devil was in the smaller samples for individual states. Even at the state level, only Wisconsin was outside of the standard deviation for expected results. [I don't know stats well enough to say what percentage of samples would lie outside of the standard deviation, but my shoot-from-the-hip assumption is that 1 out of 50 being beyond the SD is quite probable.]

2) We'll know by the time the official results are posted if the polling accuracy is better (assuming the shenanigans we all know are coming don't skew it.)
In 2018 the state-level biases were about half what they were in 2016, meaning that the spread between polling results and ballot results were lower in 2018 than 2016. So if the polls in Wisconsin, PA, and MI are similar to 2016, the ballot situation is likely worse for Trump this time around.

COVID and mail-in voting may screw that right back up though. That's my fear, not voter intent.
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Shem
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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Ellie wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 17:38
lunchstealer wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 12:27
Number 6 wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 07:56
Shem wrote: 16 Sep 2020, 23:13
Number 6 wrote: 16 Sep 2020, 22:18 That’s honestly the one thing I don’t worry about with Trump, simply because I’m 100% certain he’s going to be re-elected, and by a sizable percentage of the EC.
Which states is he going to pick up he didn't get last time?
Oregon, Colorado, maybe Minnesota.
Minnesota is the only possibility, and then only because of too much BLM rioting.
Ewww, don't tell me that! I wanted to waste my vote on Jo Jorgenson, blissfully secure in the knowledge that Minnesota would go blue no matter what I did.
It'll probably go blue? It's not going to be the tipping point, I can say that.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Eric the .5b »

Number 6 wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 17:39I really, really want to believe that a plurality of my countrymen aren't slavering, Q-Anon believing, mask-shaming, sub-literate bigots. But my (admittedly redder than red state) experience says they are.
Well, most of them may not really believe much of Qanon. Kinda like people dropped Birtherism pretty hard after Obama was out of office, at least in my neck of the woods. It's something to profess in order to signal, like the idea that Harris was a progressive prosecutor.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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One of the small joys I am looking forward to - assuming Trump loses* - is rubbing the noses of the MAGAs in their own shit.

*Trump winning would be one more thing to make 2020 a completely crap year.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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Aresen wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 19:25 One of the small joys I am looking forward to - assuming Trump loses* - is rubbing the noses of the MAGAs in their own shit.
What would you rub their faces in and what would make you think they would feel shame about it?
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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Hugh Akston wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 19:28
Aresen wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 19:25 One of the small joys I am looking forward to - assuming Trump loses* - is rubbing the noses of the MAGAs in their own shit.
What would you rub their faces in and what would make you think they would feel shame about it?
Nothing more than their own boasting about how Trump will win in 2020 by a landslide.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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Aresen wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 20:09
Hugh Akston wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 19:28
Aresen wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 19:25 One of the small joys I am looking forward to - assuming Trump loses* - is rubbing the noses of the MAGAs in their own shit.
What would you rub their faces in and what would make you think they would feel shame about it?
Nothing more than their own boasting about how Trump will win in 2020 by a landslide.
Deep State + Millions of Fraudulent Votes x Fake News = Lalalalalala Can't Hear You
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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Aresen wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 19:25 One of the small joys I am looking forward to - assuming Trump loses* - is rubbing the noses of the MAGAs in their own shit.

*Trump winning would be one more thing to make 2020 a completely crap year.
Rubbing applied via belt sander.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by thoreau »

More on the ICE doctor who reportedly sterilized women in custody:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/16/us/I ... orgia.html

The specific cases in this article don't show a sterilization campaign, but (1) the guy is apparently not a very good doctor if he's treating people without a translator and missing bad infections and (2) if he didn't inform someone prior to surgery that he might have to do things that could cause sterility, then he did not get informed consent and, at a minimum, should never practice again.

My suspicion is that we won't find a smoking gun of a policy of sterilization, but we will find that ICE is cruelly indifferent to the fact that its detainees are getting inhumane care. And if the worst fears from initial reports are not 100% born out then it's all "FAKE NEWS!!!!"
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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Doctors go beyond the consent forms all the time. It's weird saying this but .... you guys are babies. Also. I've pointed it out from time to time as well( along with dhex) but ... a lot of doctors are only okay. A good doctor fixes his mistakes during a case. A bad doctor never has to fix anything. They're infinitely better than me mind you thanks to education and training but they are still only human. You better pray you have perfect anatomy or a genuinely good doctor.
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Jake
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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Number 6 wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 07:56
Shem wrote: 16 Sep 2020, 23:13 Which states is he going to pick up he didn't get last time?
Oregon, Colorado, maybe Minnesota.
Speaking as (I claim) a bona fide expert in Oregon politics, I can say with a great deal of confidence that the odds of Oregon going to Trump are similar to the odds of Joe Biden going to Trump. We're so blue that we have a blue supermajority in both houses of our legislature, both of our senators are blue, and four of our five Congresspeople are blue (the last one's district covers a majority of the state, geographically, but only about a fifth of the state, populationwise). The Trump faithful on Team Red have tried no less than three times in the last two years to get a recall for our blue governor on the ballot, and have failed to get enough signatures to even get to the ballot every time.

Current polls suggest 51% Biden and 39% Trump, which mirrors the way the actual vote went in 2016: 50.07% Clinton and 39.09% Trump.

There are certainly some noisy, angry rednecks in the state, but they're so incredibly outnumbered outside their tiny ranch and mill towns it's irrefutably clear that they're not going to get their way in any electoral sense any time soon.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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RomanesEuntDomus.jpg
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Jennifer »

Exactly, Lunchstealer. Anyone with spelling and grammar that atrocious is bound to be a Trump supporter. It's "Romani ite donum."
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