Number 6 wrote: ↑17 Sep 2020, 07:56
Shem wrote: ↑16 Sep 2020, 23:13
Which states is he going to pick up he didn't get last time?
Oregon, Colorado, maybe Minnesota.
Speaking as (I claim) a bona fide expert in Oregon politics, I can say with a great deal of confidence that the odds of Oregon going to Trump are similar to the odds of Joe Biden going to Trump. We're so blue that we have a blue supermajority in both houses of our legislature, both of our senators are blue, and four of our five Congresspeople are blue (the last one's district covers a majority of the state, geographically, but only about a fifth of the state, populationwise). The Trump faithful on Team Red have tried no less than three times in the last two years to get a recall for our blue governor on the ballot, and have failed to get enough signatures to even get to
the ballot every time.
Current polls suggest 51% Biden and 39% Trump, which mirrors the way the actual vote went in 2016: 50.07% Clinton and 39.09% Trump.
There are certainly some noisy, angry rednecks in the state, but they're so incredibly
outnumbered outside their tiny ranch and mill towns it's irrefutably clear that they're not going to get their way in any electoral sense any time soon.
"One doesn't want to be a Chicken Little but OTOH does the sky look closer to you? It looks closer to me." -- Warren