Orange is the new President

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Jennifer
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Jennifer »

Aresen wrote: 28 Oct 2020, 00:38
Jennifer wrote: 28 Oct 2020, 00:30 Damn, Pham, that sucks. But if it's any consolation, the White House science office says the pandemic has ended. It's one of Trump's accomplishments.
I think Trump will lose next week and actually leave office on January 20, 2021, but I am seriously wondering where that last 'courtesy flight' on Air Force One that takes the ex-president home will be going.
At this point, seriously, the only thing that would surprise me is "Trump behaves like a sane and rational adult." I wouldn't be surprised if he spends his lame-duck months trying to (metaphorically) "burn everything down" -- but neither would I be surprised to find he and his family flee to a country with no US extradition treaties, before Biden gets inaugurated.
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Shem
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Shem »

I still think a solid loss means he packs his shit within two weeks of the loss,** heads for Florida, and tells the lame duck session to fuck off.

**That is, has someone else pack his shit
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Rachel
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Rachel »

Aresen wrote: 28 Oct 2020, 00:38
Jennifer wrote: 28 Oct 2020, 00:30 Damn, Pham, that sucks. But if it's any consolation, the White House science office says the pandemic has ended. It's one of Trump's accomplishments.
I think Trump will lose next week and actually leave office on January 20, 2021, but I am seriously wondering where that last 'courtesy flight' on Air Force One that takes the ex-president home will be going.
I still think there's basically no chance he loses.

Many of the swing states that Biden needs have Republican governors. You really think they're going to let Biden win? Like Florida?

(Edited to say: I would be happy to be wrong about this, I just don't think I am)
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Warren
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Warren »

Rachel wrote: 28 Oct 2020, 10:10
Aresen wrote: 28 Oct 2020, 00:38
Jennifer wrote: 28 Oct 2020, 00:30 Damn, Pham, that sucks. But if it's any consolation, the White House science office says the pandemic has ended. It's one of Trump's accomplishments.
I think Trump will lose next week and actually leave office on January 20, 2021, but I am seriously wondering where that last 'courtesy flight' on Air Force One that takes the ex-president home will be going.
I still think there's basically no chance he loses.

Many of the swing states that Biden needs have Republican governors. You really think they're going to let Biden win? Like Florida?

(Edited to say: I would be happy to be wrong about this, I just don't think I am)
Yeah sure give him Florida. But states that should be safe for him, like Texas and Georgia, are in play. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Pennsylvanian all have Dem Governors, and that's enough to give Biden the W. Even if Biden has a stroke today and loses the power of speech he's going to win this election.

In 2016 Trump was an outsider that was going to Drain the Wall, Build the Swamp, or something. He was up against the single most despicable politician in America. And he barely squeaked by.

It's four years later now and his list of accomplishments is bupkis. People who voted against Hillary are sick of his shtick and Biden is not hated.

The results are foregone at this point, the only thing that's going to make it interesting is how long it takes to count the votes.
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Aresen
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Re: Orange is the new President

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Warren wrote: 28 Oct 2020, 11:08 In 2016 Trump was an outsider that was going to Drain the Wall, Build the Swamp, or something. He was up against the single most despicable politician in America. And he barely squeaked by.
I'd have to give him credit for "Building the Swamp."

I honestly thought the 'October Surprise' was going to be 'Peace in Afghanistan', even if it meant pulling out unilaterally.
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Pham Nuwen »

I don't think Texas is going to swing blue on this. Florida is a toss up but theres a lot of shenanigans over there so probably goes Trump as well. It's going to be close.
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Shem
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Shem »

What I'm going to be interested to see is whether the 18-30 YO voter rates wind up matching the proportions from the previous elections. Places like Georgia, the registration rates have jumped 33%, and some states have had several multiples more young voters than in 2016. It didn't matter as much in the past because they stayed the same percentage of the electorate, but if it increases, that could screw the GOP.
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Jennifer
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Jennifer »

Rachel wrote: 28 Oct 2020, 10:10
Aresen wrote: 28 Oct 2020, 00:38
Jennifer wrote: 28 Oct 2020, 00:30 Damn, Pham, that sucks. But if it's any consolation, the White House science office says the pandemic has ended. It's one of Trump's accomplishments.
I think Trump will lose next week and actually leave office on January 20, 2021, but I am seriously wondering where that last 'courtesy flight' on Air Force One that takes the ex-president home will be going.
I still think there's basically no chance he loses.

Many of the swing states that Biden needs have Republican governors. You really think they're going to let Biden win? Like Florida?

(Edited to say: I would be happy to be wrong about this, I just don't think I am)
You were the only one here to call it right last time ... but I hope Shem's argument actually plays out.

I remember something I read in a long-ago PJ O'Rourke piece -- IIRC about the Nicaraguan election that ousted Ortega -- there were super-long lines to vote, and he said something like "I knew Ortega was going to lose, because nobody waits in line for hours and hours to vote to keep the current status quo." But then ... in minority-majority districts in states like Georgia, "waiting in line for hours and hours to vote" has ALWAYS been the norm. (Though I got lucky when I went in to early vote a couple days ago -- I only had to wait a minute or two.)
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JD
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by JD »

Dirty tricks aside, at the moment, I am tempted to say it's going to be Biden, because Trump's net approval rating is lower than any president's who's gotten re-elected in the last 50 years. On the other hand, his net approval rating is higher than the two presidents who didn't get re-elected, so... Still, I'm inclined to call it for Biden, because Trump's rating has been underwater his entire time in office, and nobody has had that happen to them in the last 50 years. But there's always a first time.
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Painboy
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Painboy »

Unless the polling is completely out of whack, Biden is going to win. Possibly in a walk.
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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau »

Hope is a dangerous thing for a person like me to have, but...

When you look at the polling on 538, some of the close states have had very consistent Biden margins for several months. It's one thing for a poll to be up or down a few points from one day to the next; that's just sampling error. But if the averages of the polls have consistently shown for months that Biden has a lead of 4-5 points or whatever, either Nate Silver's algorithm is just completely fucked or Biden really is ahead. There's no way that many people are changing their minds between now and Tuesday, and a lot have already voted.

The only way Trump wins is if they shut down counts of mail-in ballots. If that happens, expect riots that make June look like a spirited family dinner. I might even go fertilize the grass at Trump's golf course in Palos Verdes.
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Jadagul
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Jadagul »

Honestly, shutting down mail ballots early might benefit Democrats. Democrats have been really aggressive about getting them in early, Republicans haven't been.

Trump's chances at this point involve some combination of (1) dirty tricks and (2) major missteps by pollsters. But you can't be totally sure the pollsters didn't royally fuck up until the election, so there's always that chance.
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Re: Orange is the new President

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thoreau wrote: 28 Oct 2020, 16:59 Hope is a dangerous thing for a person like me to have, but...

When you look at the polling on 538, some of the close states have had very consistent Biden margins for several months. It's one thing for a poll to be up or down a few points from one day to the next; that's just sampling error. But if the averages of the polls have consistently shown for months that Biden has a lead of 4-5 points or whatever, either Nate Silver's algorithm is just completely fucked or Biden really is ahead. There's no way that many people are changing their minds between now and Tuesday, and a lot have already voted.

The only way Trump wins is if they shut down counts of mail-in ballots. If that happens, expect riots that make June look like a spirited family dinner.
Cosign on this, but I think the real SHTF possibility is if the GOP tries a legislative end-around to appoint Electors where the popular vote goes against them.

The real danger zone in this election is if Biden only manages 270 - 300 EC votes. If Biden is running 320+, I don't think the GOP will bother with shenanigans.
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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau »

If a GOP legislature tries to appoint electors in contravention of the vote in their state then the GOP has no right to complain about court packing.

Also, Trump will be busy overseeing repairs to his Palos Verdes golf club after I smash every window and computer screen and dump feces in the kitchen.
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Shem
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Shem »

Aresen wrote: 28 Oct 2020, 17:08
thoreau wrote: 28 Oct 2020, 16:59 Hope is a dangerous thing for a person like me to have, but...

When you look at the polling on 538, some of the close states have had very consistent Biden margins for several months. It's one thing for a poll to be up or down a few points from one day to the next; that's just sampling error. But if the averages of the polls have consistently shown for months that Biden has a lead of 4-5 points or whatever, either Nate Silver's algorithm is just completely fucked or Biden really is ahead. There's no way that many people are changing their minds between now and Tuesday, and a lot have already voted.

The only way Trump wins is if they shut down counts of mail-in ballots. If that happens, expect riots that make June look like a spirited family dinner.
Cosign on this, but I think the real SHTF possibility is if the GOP tries a legislative end-around to appoint Electors where the popular vote goes against them.

The real danger zone in this election is if Biden only manages 270 - 300 EC votes. If Biden is running 320+, I don't think the GOP will bother with shenanigans.
I honestly can't see that happening no matter what. Why would you put your neck in a noose for a guy you hate when you could just let him be martyred, then have a bloody shirt to wave?
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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

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Depends on what will get your neck in the noose and who will open the trap door. If you're a Red legislator in a gerrymandered district, you don't have to worry about the swing voters who delivered your state to Biden. You have to worry about the majority in your district, who are listening to Fox News report on MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD delivering your state to Biden and BIG CITY LIBERAL POLITICAL MACHINES rigging the recount.
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Warren
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Warren »

Knock it off with the '"DIRTY TRICKS"' talk. If the past four years have demonstrated anything, it's that any "Dirty Tricks" Trump tries to pull will necessarily be so inept as to have the opposite of their intended effect.
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Shem
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Re: Orange is the new President

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thoreau wrote: 28 Oct 2020, 18:01 Depends on what will get your neck in the noose and who will open the trap door. If you're a Red legislator in a gerrymandered district, you don't have to worry about the swing voters who delivered your state to Biden. You have to worry about the majority in your district, who are listening to Fox News report on MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD delivering your state to Biden and BIG CITY LIBERAL POLITICAL MACHINES rigging the recount.
If Ben Sasse is moving out of the splash zone, nobody is expecting insurmountable consequences from letting someone else slide the metaphorical knife into Trumpism.
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JD
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by JD »

It is a little sobering to look back and see that most of the pundits predicted an easy win for Clinton in 2016, though.

I bet some people would like to forget this...
Image
(source: https://time.com/4561625/electoral-college-predictions/)
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Warren
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Warren »

JD wrote: 28 Oct 2020, 19:18 It is a little sobering to look back and see that most of the pundits predicted an easy win for Clinton in 2016, though.

I bet some people would like to forget this...
Image
(source: https://time.com/4561625/electoral-college-predictions/)
Pundits yes, especially the Democratic hacks, which is most of them. But for those that cared to look, the state by state polling told a different story.
This time around the polling is telling a different story yet. There has been strikingly little volatility in the polling data, even more unusual is the absence of the Undecideds. People made their minds up about this race months ago, and nothing it seems is going to shake them.
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Eric the .5b
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Eric the .5b »

Team Warren.

Shit can happen, and there is in fact a chance for Trump to win (as the better analysts said even in 2016). But, beyond the points Warren laid out in that last post, remember that 2016 was also Team Blue picking its most thoroughly disliked nominee in modern memory, her running a crap campaign, and lots of people staying home because they weren't seriously entertaining the possibility of Trump winning. None of those things are true, today.
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Aresen
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Aresen »

Shem wrote: 28 Oct 2020, 19:14 If Ben Sasse is moving out of the splash zone, nobody is expecting insurmountable consequences from letting someone else slide the metaphorical knife into Trumpism.
We don't need no stinkin' metaphors.
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Dangerman
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Dangerman »

Team Eric/Warren, with the caveat that I'm somewhat worried about GOP dirty tricks independent of whatever the Trump White House can manage to do.
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dead_elvis
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by dead_elvis »

I think people will be discovering boxes of ballots in the swamps of Florida for a year.
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Re: Orange is the new President

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