Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by JasonL » 06 Sep 2019, 20:39

Part of what worries me is this implicit idea that lots and lots of jobs are sort of side hustle like in their flexibility. So the idea comes across like a person will take on extra work here and there to supplement UBI. By definition those kinds of things are not career building sorts of entry roles. A deflection from annoying full time jobs where you have to show up into side hustles as ad hoc supplements when you feel like it is not a good thing for low skill labor.

This is an explicit goal of the freedom from exploitation crowd. Right. Only work jobs that require low level commitments so you don’t get exploited into higher paying roles.

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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by Jennifer » 06 Sep 2019, 20:54

JasonL wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 20:39
Part of what worries me is this implicit idea that lots and lots of jobs are sort of side hustle like in their flexibility. So the idea comes across like a person will take on extra work here and there to supplement UBI. By definition those kinds of things are not career building sorts of entry roles.
So? The Jim Anchower-types aren't working "career" type jobs even now. And if you visited any of the Waffle Houses in my area and commented on the elderly waitresses' "careers" they would (with much justification) think you were making fun of them. DItto thefloor sweepers, the nursing-home aides making nine bucks an hour, and so on.
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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by Warren » 06 Sep 2019, 20:55

JasonL wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 20:39
Part of what worries me is this implicit idea that lots and lots of jobs are sort of side hustle like in their flexibility. So the idea comes across like a person will take on extra work here and there to supplement UBI. By definition those kinds of things are not career building sorts of entry roles. A deflection from annoying full time jobs where you have to show up into side hustles as ad hoc supplements when you feel like it is not a good thing for low skill labor.

This is an explicit goal of the freedom from exploitation crowd. Right. Only work jobs that require low level commitments so you don’t get exploited into higher paying roles.
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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by Painboy » 06 Sep 2019, 21:31

Jadagul wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 20:33
Eric the .5b wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 20:27
Jadagul wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 20:20
Painboy wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 19:31
Hugh Akston wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 19:20
Painboy wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 17:55
So using some simple numbers let's say everyone gets $10,000 a year for UBI. A fast food place offers an additional $5000 a year to work there. If a non-citizen wants to work there they're not getting the other $10,000 a citizen gets and the company isn't going to make that up. What am I missing here?
Even at PT hours $5k a year is $4.80/hr, which no one nowhere is paying regardless of minimum wage laws. Why would wages take such a precipitous dive as a result of a UBI?
Because the person is already going to be getting $10k a year. The value of the job is $15k a year. The company isn't going to give them another $15k on top of their UBI. They'll just provide the $5k difference.

Even if they were to pay it on top of that the non-citizen is still getting $10k less than a citizen for the same work.
This doesn't make any sense. The jobs will pay the amount they need for people to think it's worth it. If the job produces $15k of value, you can afford to pay $15k to get people. In a competitive market that's where the wages will be.

That has nothing to do with any other sources of income your employees may have.
If the job produces $15k of value and you can get people to do it for $5k because they already get $10k for breathing, then you'll pay $5k.
That's true, but doesn't explain why people would do it for $5k.

Like, if you can get people to do it for $5k and they don't get any other money, you'll also pay $5k. The question is whether a UBI makes people more or less willing to accept less money.

My guess is that they will be willing to accept _less_ money for jobs that they value intrinsically/involve doing good in the world, and _more_ money for jobs that they don't like. Which seems like a good-ish thing probably? Though not definitely.

But also that's a guess, not a data.
They do it because they want to buy stuff worth $15k dollars and not $10k.

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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by Eric the .5b » 06 Sep 2019, 21:47

Painboy wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 21:31
Jadagul wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 20:33
Eric the .5b wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 20:27
Jadagul wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 20:20
Painboy wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 19:31
Hugh Akston wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 19:20

Even at PT hours $5k a year is $4.80/hr, which no one nowhere is paying regardless of minimum wage laws. Why would wages take such a precipitous dive as a result of a UBI?
Because the person is already going to be getting $10k a year. The value of the job is $15k a year. The company isn't going to give them another $15k on top of their UBI. They'll just provide the $5k difference.

Even if they were to pay it on top of that the non-citizen is still getting $10k less than a citizen for the same work.
This doesn't make any sense. The jobs will pay the amount they need for people to think it's worth it. If the job produces $15k of value, you can afford to pay $15k to get people. In a competitive market that's where the wages will be.

That has nothing to do with any other sources of income your employees may have.
If the job produces $15k of value and you can get people to do it for $5k because they already get $10k for breathing, then you'll pay $5k.
That's true, but doesn't explain why people would do it for $5k.

Like, if you can get people to do it for $5k and they don't get any other money, you'll also pay $5k. The question is whether a UBI makes people more or less willing to accept less money.

My guess is that they will be willing to accept _less_ money for jobs that they value intrinsically/involve doing good in the world, and _more_ money for jobs that they don't like. Which seems like a good-ish thing probably? Though not definitely.

But also that's a guess, not a data.
They do it because they want to buy stuff worth $15k dollars and not $10k.
Yeah. Let's at least hold out for starships and teleporters before we go full Star Trek Bullshit.
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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by Mo » 07 Sep 2019, 03:31

I suspect conditions would improve more than salaries. Like people would be less willing to deal with things like flex scheduling for a minimum wage job if they have some cash to fall back on.
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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by Kolohe » 09 Sep 2019, 18:56

JasonL wrote:
04 Sep 2019, 22:23
That new skill should have value in the market. If it doesn’t, that skill is just another version of video games. A world of endless shitty garage bands is what I fear.
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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by JD » 10 Sep 2019, 10:55

An article on the Alaskan Permanent Fund Dividend. It's pretty small peanuts as UBIs go - about $2000/year - and it comes from mineral royalties which then get invested, so it may not be a great parallel for most UBI plans, but it's something. As Vox says, it seems to have cut Alaskan poverty, but it's also become a sacred cow of Alaskan politics: if you promise to increase it, you'll get elected, even if that means you have to cut other programs.
In 2018, Republican state Sen. Mike Dunleavy saw an opportunity. Despite traditional Republican aversions to handouts, Dunleavy ran for governor on the campaign platform of increasing the PFD. He promised every resident up to $6,700, to make up for Walker’s cuts in 2016 and 2017 — though he was foggy on how the state could pay.

The result? Dunleavy won by a landslide.

The problem is that he now finds himself unable to fulfill his campaign promise without major cuts elsewhere. He’s now seeking to jettison other state commitments to health care, education, infrastructure, and other vital areas. After initially vetoing $444 million from the state budget, Dunleavy responded to the threat of a recall vote and walked back some of his more extreme line-item cuts. Still, the state will see no funding for public broadcasting, a 31 percent cut to its critical ferry system, $130 million from Medicaid, and $70 million from the University of Alaska system.
...
But on top of all the cuts he’s pushed, Dunleavy agreed on August 20 to the $1,600 PFD that was passed by the legislature — meaning Alaskans still won’t get the check they thought they were voting for, because contrary to Dunleavy’s campaign messaging, the governor does not actually hold the power to set the value of the dividend. (Only the legislature does.)
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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by JasonL » 10 Sep 2019, 11:28

Related, my favorite kind of social science on this stuff is "people receiving free money responded that they were happier and suffered less stress".

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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by JD » 10 Sep 2019, 12:01

JasonL wrote:
10 Sep 2019, 11:28
Related, my favorite kind of social science on this stuff is "people receiving free money responded that they were happier and suffered less stress".
I do think it's worthwhile to see if that's a persistent change or if things return to a baseline over time. Unfortunately, I don't think that's the kind of thing a short pilot program is ever going to be able to tell you about something that's supposed to be society-wide and permanent.
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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by JD » 10 Sep 2019, 12:21

Here's Andrew Yang's pitch for his "Freedom Dividend" UBI: https://www.yang2020.com/what-is-freedom-dividend-faq/

tl;dr: It will totally pay for itself many times over and unicorns will poop rainbows everywhere.

Interestingly, the FAQ does address "What about variations in the cost of living? Wouldn’t major cities need much more money than rural areas?" The answer is "there will be no cost of living adjustment". It would add to bureaucratic costs (true), and "Plus, the Freedom Dividend would actually help many more Americans live where they want to" (not sure how that works) and "The Freedom Dividend would lead to a revitalization of many communities as people take advantage of lower costs of living in certain areas instead of piling into expensive metro areas" (i.e., all the poors are gonna move to Goat Rope, MO, I guess)
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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by Hugh Akston » 10 Sep 2019, 12:33

JD wrote:
10 Sep 2019, 12:21
"Plus, the Freedom Dividend would actually help many more Americans live where they want to" (not sure how that works)
This is JasonL's "get out of your dying small town and move to an affordable city" thing.
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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by nicole » 10 Sep 2019, 12:49

Hugh Akston wrote:
10 Sep 2019, 12:33
JD wrote:
10 Sep 2019, 12:21
"Plus, the Freedom Dividend would actually help many more Americans live where they want to" (not sure how that works)
This is JasonL's "get out of your dying small town and move to an affordable city" thing.
I thought it was the reverse, "you'll be able to stay in your dying small town because of the UBI."
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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by Hugh Akston » 10 Sep 2019, 12:59

nicole wrote:
10 Sep 2019, 12:49
Hugh Akston wrote:
10 Sep 2019, 12:33
JD wrote:
10 Sep 2019, 12:21
"Plus, the Freedom Dividend would actually help many more Americans live where they want to" (not sure how that works)
This is JasonL's "get out of your dying small town and move to an affordable city" thing.
I thought it was the reverse, "you'll be able to stay in your dying small town because of the UBI."
I imagine it will go both ways.
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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by Ellie » 10 Sep 2019, 14:37

Hugh Akston wrote:
10 Sep 2019, 12:59
nicole wrote:
10 Sep 2019, 12:49
Hugh Akston wrote:
10 Sep 2019, 12:33
JD wrote:
10 Sep 2019, 12:21
"Plus, the Freedom Dividend would actually help many more Americans live where they want to" (not sure how that works)
This is JasonL's "get out of your dying small town and move to an affordable city" thing.
I thought it was the reverse, "you'll be able to stay in your dying small town because of the UBI."
I imagine it will go both ways.
Putting the "bi" in UBI.
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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by JasonL » 10 Sep 2019, 14:53

Unclear to me which way it would go because it depends on how people value marginal increases in purchsaing power vs marginal buffers from rent too damn high.

A flat UBI basically plays out like you get some amount of money to stay put but effectively more money to move. The difference between value of $10k in Bay Area and value of $10k in Cincinnati is like $5k extra - every year forever.

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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by Highway » 10 Sep 2019, 15:13

It would go both directions. Some people would find that the extra cash let them stay in the expensive area with their support or dreams / goals. Other people would find that the extra take home money let them live a much better life in a cheaper area, making up for the lack of other quality of life aspects.
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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by Mo » 10 Sep 2019, 18:16

JasonL wrote:Unclear to me which way it would go because it depends on how people value marginal increases in purchsaing power vs marginal buffers from rent too damn high.

A flat UBI basically plays out like you get some amount of money to stay put but effectively more money to move. The difference between value of $10k in Bay Area and value of $10k in Cincinnati is like $5k extra - every year forever.
But $10k in Goat Rope will push up prices in a meaningful way. $10k in SF may make lattes cost an extra nickel.
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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by JasonL » 10 Sep 2019, 19:42

Yeah. It's complicated.

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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by Eric the .5b » 10 Sep 2019, 23:39

Mo wrote:
10 Sep 2019, 18:16
JasonL wrote:Unclear to me which way it would go because it depends on how people value marginal increases in purchsaing power vs marginal buffers from rent too damn high.

A flat UBI basically plays out like you get some amount of money to stay put but effectively more money to move. The difference between value of $10k in Bay Area and value of $10k in Cincinnati is like $5k extra - every year forever.
But $10k in Goat Rope will push up prices in a meaningful way. $10k in SF may make lattes cost an extra nickel.
Which will nullify some of the cost-of-living advantage of Goat Rope. Presumably nowhere near all of it vs. the more expensive parts of the country, but a real portion.
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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by Eric the .5b » 03 Oct 2019, 20:04

From Stockton, CA: 125 people get $500/month.
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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by JD » 04 Oct 2019, 09:51

Eric the .5b wrote:
03 Oct 2019, 20:04
From Stockton, CA: 125 people get $500/month.
I'm inclined to agree with the guy who says this one doesn't look good for much beyond anecdote generation. I mean, saying "they spent it on food!" looks better than saying they spent it on drugs or alcohol, but it makes a bit of a difference whether it's "they spent it on food because they were starving" or "they got the boneless New York strip instead of the ground chuck".
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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by JasonL » 04 Oct 2019, 10:37

The goals of a lot of these studies are hand wavy. People start talking about outcomes that could be presumed from the outset like "they used this money to increase dignity". What does that even mean? How about "recipients reported less stress". No shit, really? I'd like to be clear at the outset what the goals of the program would be if universalized then test those things. One thing could be "these people used fewer in kind welfare programs suggesting this is a more efficient anti poverty approach". Another thing could be "these people had better employment outcomes suggesting they were inhibited by poverty from engaging in productive work". That kind of stuff - things that tell you if this is a cost effective way to deliver welfare as a substitute or if it creates some kind of long term path to self reliance. If the argument is just "people who get money like getting money", yeah we know that.

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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by Warren » 04 Oct 2019, 11:08

I like getting money
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Re: Money for Nothing: the Universal Basic Income

Post by Ellie » 17 Nov 2019, 01:03

I confess I don't know anything about "the dole" besides hearing references to it in some of the British novels I've read. From my extremely ignorant perspective, it sounds a little like UBI -- kind of like money for nothing, but not very much, just enough to get by? Or am I way off base?

(yes, I could google it, but I don't feel like it SO THERE)
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