Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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Jadagul
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Jadagul »

Yeah, the consensus from what I've seen is that transmission is mostly driven by superspreading events. But it's not like individual people have identities as superspreaders; it's more that certain scenarios or events have a risk of causing lots of spread.

This does make the herd immunity threshold probably somewhat lower, and it does suggest certain types of events to focus on, mostly ones that are indoor and crowded.
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Mo
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Mo »

I thought part of it was that there were certain people that were superspreaders (proverbial typhoid Maries) because they were more likely to discharge a lot of the virus to folks around them.
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JasonL
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by JasonL »

What's the current state of the herd immunity discussion. Didn't I see a week or more ago that we think herd immunity isn't going to be a thing at all because of low persistence of antibodies? Some big Spanish study?
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Pham Nuwen »

JasonL wrote: 20 Jul 2020, 08:49 What's the current state of the herd immunity discussion. Didn't I see a week or more ago that we think herd immunity isn't going to be a thing at all because of low persistence of antibodies? Some big Spanish study?
I'm not familiar with a Spanish study. Low persistence of antibodies is a thing but no one knows if that's specific individuals or the population at large. Not helpful I know but that's where my docs are at.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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JasonL wrote: 20 Jul 2020, 08:49 What's the current state of the herd immunity discussion. Didn't I see a week or more ago that we think herd immunity isn't going to be a thing at all because of low persistence of antibodies? Some big Spanish study?
This thing is like diet and nutrition. There are studies that support every fad theory out there and It's damn near impossible to discern the veracity of any of them.
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Pham Nuwen »

No it's not Warren. It's just new is all.
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JasonL
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 5/fulltext

"The majority of the Spanish population is seronegative to SARS-CoV-2 infection, even in hotspot areas. Most PCR-confirmed cases have detectable antibodies, but a substantial proportion of people with symptoms compatible with COVID-19 did not have a PCR test and at least a third of infections determined by serology were asymptomatic. These results emphasise the need for maintaining public health measures to avoid a new epidemic wave."

As I understand it, hotspot areas don't have elevated antibodies in the general population remotely sufficient to get to herd immunity without a vaccine even if you wanted to do the "natural" path.

To me, this means we are facing a) living with outbreaks and addressing locally, b) locking down face to face life for 18 months, 2 years or even 5 years and bearing those economic, isolation, quality of life consequences, or c) that's it. No c.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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Pham Nuwen wrote: 20 Jul 2020, 09:27 No it's not Warren. It's just new is all.
The new should be wearing off, and the picture getting clearer.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Warren »

JasonL wrote: 20 Jul 2020, 09:33 To me, this means we are facing a) living with outbreaks and addressing locally, b) locking down face to face life for 18 months, 2 years or even 5 years and bearing those economic, isolation, quality of life consequences, or c) that's it. No c.
Then it's a. a is possible, though terrifying long term. I just don't see any way any to do b successfully.
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JasonL
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by JasonL »

I'd like to migrate to the part of the national discussion where we just acknowledge our preferences with the costs. On everything but also particularly in Covid19. It sounds so obvious to say just wear a mask or don't gather inside. Spelling out that you could mean 5 years or honestly there's no guarantee of a vaccine ever and that all business involving gathering should morally not exist during that period but it will save lives, that's a real position.

If you support shut downs in the near term until new case rates are very low and "it's under control" you are gambling that the vaccine is coming soon. If not, you are just doing that on a rolling basis forever. Countries that have it under control can never have tourists, they can't open back up really that "gets back to normal" without more infections coming. Contact tracing and localized rolling shut down measures are where I'm probably landing on this but we need to understand that's not like a few weeks, it's for the foreseeable future period.
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Mo
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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Pham Nuwen wrote: 18 Jul 2020, 09:09 So I'm hearing a lot more about covid antibodies losing their effectiveness after a few months. Some colleagues in a neighboring hospital had it and now they cant donate useful blood with antibodies as the titer has gotten to low. Boooo!
Reposting myself:

One thing is that antibody responses aren’t the whole thing. According to Shane Crotty (a vaccine researcher) smallpox antibodies fade after months, but the vaccine is good for decades.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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JasonL wrote: 20 Jul 2020, 09:33 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 5/fulltext

"The majority of the Spanish population is seronegative to SARS-CoV-2 infection, even in hotspot areas. Most PCR-confirmed cases have detectable antibodies, but a substantial proportion of people with symptoms compatible with COVID-19 did not have a PCR test and at least a third of infections determined by serology were asymptomatic. These results emphasise the need for maintaining public health measures to avoid a new epidemic wave."

As I understand it, hotspot areas don't have elevated antibodies in the general population remotely sufficient to get to herd immunity without a vaccine even if you wanted to do the "natural" path.

To me, this means we are facing a) living with outbreaks and addressing locally, b) locking down face to face life for 18 months, 2 years or even 5 years and bearing those economic, isolation, quality of life consequences, or c) that's it. No c.
There's also some research suggesting that T-cell memory remains and can provide ongoing ability to fight the virus, so it's not just about antibodies as far as I understand. But I mean it still seems like we're going to be doing (a) and (b).
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Shem »

JasonL wrote: 20 Jul 2020, 09:33 To me, this means we are facing a) living with outbreaks and addressing locally, b) locking down face to face life for 18 months, 2 years or even 5 years and bearing those economic, isolation, quality of life consequences, or c) that's it. No c.
The fact that most of Europe is off of lockdown and not experiencing rolling reinfection suggests that those aren't the only options. They might be the only options we can manage in the US, but that's not the virus, that's the fact that huge swaths of the country won't be willing to commit to four weeks of "we all lock down everywhere and take it seriously," which is what brought their transmission to the point of being low enough to do the sort of contact tracing that keeps people from causing new flare-ups.
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JasonL
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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Shem wrote: 20 Jul 2020, 10:05
JasonL wrote: 20 Jul 2020, 09:33 To me, this means we are facing a) living with outbreaks and addressing locally, b) locking down face to face life for 18 months, 2 years or even 5 years and bearing those economic, isolation, quality of life consequences, or c) that's it. No c.
The fact that most of Europe is off of lockdown and not experiencing rolling reinfection suggests that those aren't the only options. They might be the only options we can manage in the US, but that's not the virus, that's the fact that huge swaths of the country won't be willing to commit to four weeks of "we all lock down everywhere and take it seriously," which is what brought their transmission to the point of being low enough to do the sort of contact tracing that keeps people from causing new flare-ups.
If herd immunity isn't a thing all you are saying about those places is that they are taking the clamps off a lower base infection rate and they are lower on the exponential curve. Australia has a very low rate. They should never allow tourists again if they want to stay that way. Not without 2 week quarantine, and so forth. Bars can't be good, not ever, not until a vaccine happens. Travel can't be good. Restaurants and hotels can't be good. Florida had no open bars from about March 20something until about July 4. Restaurants in like May. So it's not 4 weeks. Agree that the complete absence of a test and trace regime is probably our doom.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Highway »

If the majority of the world gets the base rates of infection low enough, then the majority of the world would go back to pretty much the way things were, but excluding those areas where there are problems, with the idea that those problem areas get themselves under control. The problem right now is that the problem areas are still huge.

A lot of the problem with the response in the US is that a lot of places have never, yet, taken it 'seriously'. Closing bars and restaurants and restricting travel doesn't do that much if a significant portion of the people still go to work and school and church and the gym and whatever other things people were doing as before.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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You can also get low enough to be at the point where testing can be fast enough that you don't need long quarantines unless people are infected. The health department was talking three or four days to do test results at the height locally, but when I got tested (at a time when things were calmer) I had results within 6 hours.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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I don’t understand the H&R anti-locality mandate thing. Part of the critique is that if you enforce it with fines, you’re involving the police. But at the same time, the author speaks positively about private businesses doing it, which means, at the end, it will also be enforced by the police (as trespassing). A municipality having a valid public health requirement during the pandemic is below the bottom of the barrel of anti freedom stuff.
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JasonL
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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That was a dumb take I agree. It struck me as a knee jerk.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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Which article?
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Pham Nuwen »

Warren wrote: 20 Jul 2020, 09:34
Pham Nuwen wrote: 20 Jul 2020, 09:27 No it's not Warren. It's just new is all.
The new should be wearing off, and the picture getting clearer.
New doesnt wear off just because you've been aware of it for 6 months and not really experienced anything. Research wise it's new. But you're old so maybe its different for you. I dont know. I'm not a fucking engineer.
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Mo
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Warren »

JasonL wrote: 20 Jul 2020, 10:30
Shem wrote: 20 Jul 2020, 10:05
JasonL wrote: 20 Jul 2020, 09:33 To me, this means we are facing a) living with outbreaks and addressing locally, b) locking down face to face life for 18 months, 2 years or even 5 years and bearing those economic, isolation, quality of life consequences, or c) that's it. No c.
The fact that most of Europe is off of lockdown and not experiencing rolling reinfection suggests that those aren't the only options. They might be the only options we can manage in the US, but that's not the virus, that's the fact that huge swaths of the country won't be willing to commit to four weeks of "we all lock down everywhere and take it seriously," which is what brought their transmission to the point of being low enough to do the sort of contact tracing that keeps people from causing new flare-ups.
If herd immunity isn't a thing all you are saying about those places is that they are taking the clamps off a lower base infection rate and they are lower on the exponential curve. Australia has a very low rate. They should never allow tourists again if they want to stay that way. Not without 2 week quarantine, and so forth. Bars can't be good, not ever, not until a vaccine happens. Travel can't be good. Restaurants and hotels can't be good. Florida had no open bars from about March 20something until about July 4. Restaurants in like May. So it's not 4 weeks. Agree that the complete absence of a test and trace regime is probably our doom.
You can have bars, restaurants, hotels etc. But with new rules about how close people are seated together and Standard Operating Procedures for the staff.
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Pham Nuwen »

I envision your own private booth space with plexiglass. I dont know how else you could do it but I'm sure someone knows.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by lunchstealer »

Pham Nuwen wrote: 20 Jul 2020, 14:18 I'm not a fucking engineer.
And never forget that, P. Even at your darkest hour, at least you're not an engineer.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by lunchstealer »

Mo wrote: 20 Jul 2020, 14:22
Hugh Akston wrote: 20 Jul 2020, 13:34 Which article?
https://reason.com/2020/07/17/georgia-g ... date-good/
They're making some really weird claims, too.

Like this article:

https://reason.com/2020/07/20/daily-cov ... e-to-rise/
According to the CDC's "best estimate," 1.3 percent of Americans 65 or older who develop COVID-19 symptoms will die from the disease, compared to 0.2 percent of 50-to-64-year-olds and 0.05 percent of people younger than 50.
So they're saying that the CDC is estimating a case fatality rate is going to be significantly below 1.3%, almost certainly below 0.2%, depending on the current US population distribution, but the page they link shows that their best estimate of the overall infection fatality rate, which is always lower than the case fatality rate in that it includes asymptomatic infections - of 0.65%.
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