Calling 2020 for Entropy

[Eric the .5b]

"Foreigners" and "foreign governments" are somewhat different things.

I'll worry about how much they trust the US government when I can get how much I distrust it back down to normal levels.

[Jadagul]

I would classify what foreign non-governments think of us as a rather important component of prestige.

And it is important and it does matter. It makes our diplomacy more potent, but more importantly it drives our economy that talented people want to live here and work here. (And would drive it even better if we let them.)

[Eric the .5b]

And it is important and it does matter.

Everything's important. Everything matters.

And this can get in line way behind Trump trying to start a civil war if he doesn't get re-elected.

[Number 6]

And it is important and it does matter.

Everything's important. Everything matters.

And this can get in line way behind Trump trying to start a civil war if he doesn't get re-elected.

That’s honestly the one thing I don’t worry about with Trump, simply because I’m 100% certain he’s going to be re-elected, and by a sizable percentage of the EC.
There may well be serious civil unrest. But it won’t be due to a Trumpertantrum because he lost.

[Shem]

That’s honestly the one thing I don’t worry about with Trump, simply because I’m 100% certain he’s going to be re-elected, and by a sizable percentage of the EC.

Which states is he going to pick up he didn't get last time?

[thoreau]

A better question is, which states will he be ahead in for the initial counts on election night, and will those be enough to get him to declare 270 electoral votes before all of the mail-in ballots are counted?

The issue is not who wins under rules that are faithfully followed, but who can create the impression of a win, seize the narrative, and move angry supporters into the streets if their "win" is questioned.

[Number 6]

That’s honestly the one thing I don’t worry about with Trump, simply because I’m 100% certain he’s going to be re-elected, and by a sizable percentage of the EC.

Which states is he going to pick up he didn't get last time?

Oregon, Colorado, maybe Minnesota.

[Shem]

Oregon

You're trolling me, right?

[Hugh Akston]

Colorado

This also seems unlikely

[lunchstealer]

That’s honestly the one thing I don’t worry about with Trump, simply because I’m 100% certain he’s going to be re-elected, and by a sizable percentage of the EC.

Which states is he going to pick up he didn't get last time?

Oregon, Colorado, maybe Minnesota.

I don't see it. I expect Johnson voters get split three ways between Jo, Biden, and Trump, and Stein voters get split between Biden, not returning the ballot, and whatever greens may exist, but I haven't even heard who it is. Even the socialists on my feed are all in on gripe-about-Biden-when-Trump-is-gone. I'm not sure where Trump makes gains, and they have to be fairly substantial. There were people who didn't admit to leaning towards Trump in aught-16, but his people are out and proud now, so I don't see the polls missing the mark as much as in aught-16, either.

Of those, Minnesota is the only possibility, and then only because of too much BLM rioting. CO's mail-in system has been established for years now, so there's no chance of COVID skewing vote totals.

[Number 6]

In Oregon, there are redneck vigilantes hunting the antifa folks they believe started the fires. I’m not convinced there are enough lefitsh folks in Portland to offset that sort of insanity.
I’ll admit that my perception of CO is skewed because of Colorado Springs.
Minnesota because of the riots.

I’ll admit that all of those are only possibilities. But truthfully, it doesn’t matter. He needs only to repeat 2016. So far, the polls are similar enough to 2016 that I don’t see any reason to think it’ll break for Biden. I’m pretty confident that Trump has Florida locked up, for example. Wisconsin will break red again, thanks to the riots and the panic and tribalism they’ve engendered in rural folks. Ultimately, Murcans gonna Murca.

[thoreau]

I'm slightly more optimistic about the vote totals when all is done. What I'm worried about is the election night vote totals. If he declares victory, and then Fox News mislabels the subsequent completion of the tally as "recounts" and Barr claims that the "recounts" have "unsettled legal questions" and Trump calls vigilantes into the streets, shit will get ugly. Biden might still get into the White House when all is said and done, but the ugly journey from election night to inauguration day will be a disaster. An episode like that will do lasting damage to the trust that is so necessary for liberal and democratic institutions.

[Hugh Akston]

CoSprings is balanced out by Boulder. Denver is reliably Blue, and I don't get the sense that the suburban counties surrounding Denver are buying Trump's apocalyptic rhetoric, though it's conceivable that JeffCo could turn red. Rural and mountain counties are reliably Red but sparsely populated. It will be interesting to see how Covid affects the student vote in Larimer county.

What surprised me was that the Western Slope went blue almost top to bottom in 2016. But then I don't spend much time on the WS.

[Aresen]

I'm slightly more optimistic about the vote totals when all is done. What I'm worried about is the election night vote totals. If he declares victory, and then Fox News mislabels the subsequent completion of the tally as "recounts" and Barr claims that the "recounts" have "unsettled legal questions" and Trump calls vigilantes into the streets, shit will get ugly. Biden might still get into the White House when all is said and done, but the ugly journey from election night to inauguration day will be a disaster. An episode like that will do lasting damage to the trust that is so necessary for liberal and democratic institutions.

This is my 'nightmare scenario'. Especially if Trump continues the 'fraud' rhetoric after the counting is complete. The long term damage to trust will be Trump's most poisonous legacy. Something Putin will love.

[thoreau]

Why are you talking about Putin? Putin has nothing to do with Trump and there have been absolutely no compromising dealings between Putin and Trump. It's all just been troll farms and people paid to go on the internet and say things that help Putin and Trump.

[lunchstealer]

I'm slightly more optimistic about the vote totals when all is done. What I'm worried about is the election night vote totals. If he declares victory, and then Fox News mislabels the subsequent completion of the tally as "recounts" and Barr claims that the "recounts" have "unsettled legal questions" and Trump calls vigilantes into the streets, shit will get ugly. Biden might still get into the White House when all is said and done, but the ugly journey from election night to inauguration day will be a disaster. An episode like that will do lasting damage to the trust that is so necessary for liberal and democratic institutions.

This is my 'nightmare scenario'. Especially if Trump continues the 'fraud' rhetoric after the counting is complete. The long term damage to trust will be Trump's most poisonous legacy. Something Putin will love.

This is what bugs me about the "Oh it's just trolls on facebook" thing. Russia's whole geopolitical thing is to split Europe from America and the best way to do that is to undermine internationalism and democracy, as it's the democracy-and-liberalism that most cements ties between the US and not-UK Europe. A more indifferent-to-trans-Atlantia Europe puts some friction in American logistics to South/Southwest Asia, and weakens westward-orientation in the Ukraine-to-Estionia corridor, expanding Putin/Russia's sphere of influence and Russian greatness.

Russia and Trump are undermining American institutions, frankly emboldening Antifa's and hard-progressives' antiliberalism in the process. The damage being done will resonate for a while, and the longer Trump is ringing the bell, the longer it resonates.

[Jennifer]

In addition to the last few statements, there's also the GOP voter-suppression tactics to bear in mind.

[Shem]

In Oregon, there are redneck vigilantes hunting the antifa folks they believe started the fires. I’m not convinced there are enough lefitsh folks in Portland to offset that sort of insanity.

Which is a lot like "Portland is burning!!!!" even though the unrest is limited to about four square blocks downtown. Besides, the redneck vigilantees aren't anything new down there. You read about the founding of the state? They've always been there. Their existence is baked in.

So far, the polls are similar enough to 2016 that I don’t see any reason to think it’ll break for Biden.

What makes you think the pollsters are using the same methodology as 2016?

Ultimately, Murcans gonna Murca.

Are you sure living in a deep red state isn't skewing your thinking?

[thoreau]

I'm slightly more optimistic about the vote totals when all is done. What I'm worried about is the election night vote totals. If he declares victory, and then Fox News mislabels the subsequent completion of the tally as "recounts" and Barr claims that the "recounts" have "unsettled legal questions" and Trump calls vigilantes into the streets, shit will get ugly. Biden might still get into the White House when all is said and done, but the ugly journey from election night to inauguration day will be a disaster. An episode like that will do lasting damage to the trust that is so necessary for liberal and democratic institutions.

This is my 'nightmare scenario'. Especially if Trump continues the 'fraud' rhetoric after the counting is complete. The long term damage to trust will be Trump's most poisonous legacy. Something Putin will love.

This is what bugs me about the "Oh it's just trolls on facebook" thing. Russia's whole geopolitical thing is to split Europe from America and the best way to do that is to undermine internationalism and democracy, as it's the democracy-and-liberalism that most cements ties between the US and not-UK Europe. A more indifferent-to-trans-Atlantia Europe puts some friction in American logistics to South/Southwest Asia, and weakens westward-orientation in the Ukraine-to-Estionia corridor, expanding Putin/Russia's sphere of influence and Russian greatness.

Russia and Trump are undermining American institutions, frankly emboldening Antifa's and hard-progressives' antiliberalism in the process. The damage being done will resonate for a while, and the longer Trump is ringing the bell, the longer it resonates.

Why do you keep saying "Russia and Trump"? Those two have never, ever coordinated any sort of activity or acted on a common goal. They're just pursuing self-interest completely independent of each other, and without any sort of business entanglements that might compromise Trump's independence.

We now that this is true because only crazy lefties think otherwise. Furthermore, if it were the case that Trump had some sort of compromising business relationships with Russians then there would be a difference between the two parties, and we know for 100% certainty that there is no difference between the parties. Just as we know with perfect certainties that all individuals are equally capable of doing physics and should get physics degrees no matter how badly they do in math.

We know all of these things because if they were false then somebody might be upset.

[Shem]

I'm slightly more optimistic about the vote totals when all is done. What I'm worried about is the election night vote totals. If he declares victory, and then Fox News mislabels the subsequent completion of the tally as "recounts" and Barr claims that the "recounts" have "unsettled legal questions" and Trump calls vigilantes into the streets, shit will get ugly. Biden might still get into the White House when all is said and done, but the ugly journey from election night to inauguration day will be a disaster. An episode like that will do lasting damage to the trust that is so necessary for liberal and democratic institutions.

This is my 'nightmare scenario'. Especially if Trump continues the 'fraud' rhetoric after the counting is complete. The long term damage to trust will be Trump's most poisonous legacy. Something Putin will love.

This is what bugs me about the "Oh it's just trolls on facebook" thing. Russia's whole geopolitical thing is to split Europe from America and the best way to do that is to undermine internationalism and democracy, as it's the democracy-and-liberalism that most cements ties between the US and not-UK Europe. A more indifferent-to-trans-Atlantia Europe puts some friction in American logistics to South/Southwest Asia, and weakens westward-orientation in the Ukraine-to-Estionia corridor, expanding Putin/Russia's sphere of influence and Russian greatness.

Russia and Trump are undermining American institutions, frankly emboldening Antifa's and hard-progressives' antiliberalism in the process. The damage being done will resonate for a while, and the longer Trump is ringing the bell, the longer it resonates.

Why do you keep saying "Russia and Trump"? Those two have never, ever coordinated any sort of activity or acted on a common goal. They're just pursuing self-interest completely independent of each other, and without any sort of business entanglements that might compromise Trump's independence.

We now that this is true because only crazy lefties think otherwise. Furthermore, if it were the case that Trump had some sort of compromising business relationships with Russians then there would be a difference between the two parties, and we know for 100% certainty that there is no difference between the parties. Just as we know with perfect certainties that all individuals are equally capable of doing physics and should get physics degrees no matter how badly they do in math.

We know all of these things because if they were false then somebody might be upset.

Dude, I agree with you and even I'm finding this rather tedious.

[thoreau]

OK, I'll stop.

[lunchstealer]

So far, the polls are similar enough to 2016 that I don’t see any reason to think it’ll break for Biden.

What makes you think the pollsters are using the same methodology as 2016?

Yeah, there are a number of reasons to think that the 2020 polling is less skewed than the 2016 polling. Better methodology, and as I mentioned above, there were a number of Trump voters who would only admit to it in confidence, with one article from just before the 2016 vote saying something like, "There were a number of 'leaners', like [some person] who say they're undecided or voting for Hillary, and then lean in close and whisper, 'But I may vote for Trump.'" There aren't these closeted Trump-leaners this time. If you're on the MAGA train, you're out and proud.

[Aresen]

So far, the polls are similar enough to 2016 that I don’t see any reason to think it’ll break for Biden.

What makes you think the pollsters are using the same methodology as 2016?

Yeah, there are a number of reasons to think that the 2020 polling is less skewed than the 2016 polling. Better methodology, and as I mentioned above, there were a number of Trump voters who would only admit to it in confidence, with one article from just before the 2016 vote saying something like, "There were a number of 'leaners', like [some person] who say they're undecided or voting for Hillary, and then lean in close and whisper, 'But I may vote for Trump.'" There aren't these closeted Trump-leaners this time. If you're on the MAGA train, you're out and proud.

Plus Biden's lead over Trump is between two and four percent greater than Clinton's - enough to put it outside of that 'margin of error' that bit Clinton in 2016.

[Number 6]

Are you sure living in a deep red state isn't skewing your thinking?

No, I'm not sure of that at all. But I do know that about 40% of my countrymen are perfectly fine with Trump's grotesqueries. I also know that the EC skews things towards the more bubbarific states.
Your point about the prevalence of the redneck element is a fair one, but I also think it's easy to underestimate how prevalent that sort of thinking is. While it's fair to note that I work in a field that attracts red-state types, I can say that the Trumpian worldview is almost universal among them. I hope that you're right about how many hee-haws are out there, but I'm afraid you're not.

[thoreau]

The question is whether those hee-haws have always been there at similar prevalence for several election cycles, and so their effects are already captured in changing poll numbers.